Rewarding War Crimes

By Robert Dreyfuss

A doddering old former US secretary of state wants President-elect Obama to do more than keep Robert Gates on a secretary of defense. He suggests that Obama ought to retain W.'s policy of preventive, unilateral military assaults on, well, anyone we don't like.

No, it's not Henry Kissinger. George Shultz, who served under President Reagan, in an interview with the Washington Times, said that Bush's "doctrine of pre-emptive defense against terrorism" was "a controversial but important idea," adding:

"That is, that in this age where there are people who want to do damage to us through terrorist tactics, you want to be aggressive in trying to find out what might happen before it happens, and then stop it from happening; that is, take preventive action.

Read More »

(56) Comments

November 18, 2008

Obama, Iran, and the US-Iraq SOFA

By Robert Dreyfuss

Why, after so many months, was the US-Iraq security pact approved now? True, the two countries were facing a deadline of December 31, when the UN authority for the occupation expires, but they could have gone back to the UN for a temporary extension or simply signed a bilateral statement not nearly as involved as the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA)approved yesterday by the Iraqi Cabinet.

Here's the reason, in my opinion. The election of Barack Obama changed Iran's calculus, and so Iran decided, very subtly, to shift to neutral on the pact. As a result, many politicians in Iraq who are either influenced by Iran or who are outright Iranian agents now support the pact. It's an important sign from Tehran to Obama that they're willing to work with the United States.

For months, the United States has blamed Iran for sabotaging the prospect for an agreement, and there's little doubt that had John McCain won the election, Iran would have concluded that the likelihood was very high that Iraq would be used as a base for attacking Iran over its nuclear program.

Read More »

November 17, 2008

O'Hanlon Gives Obama Some Bad Advice

By Robert Dreyfuss

In today's Wall Street Journal, a top hawkish Democrat -- a supporter of Hillary Clinton in the primaries whose hardline views on Iraq forced Hillary to break with him -- gives Barack Obama some advice he doesn't need. This time, it's on Iraq.

In "How to Win in Afghanistan," Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution writes:

President-elect Barack Obama has wisely promised an increase in U.S. forces for Afghanistan. But his proposed minisurge of perhaps 15,000 more troops, on top of the 30,000 Americans and 30,000 NATO personnel now there, will not suffice as a strategy. More is needed. ...

Read More »

(95) Comments

November 14, 2008

End of International Law, Part II

By Robert Dreyfuss

Last week, I wrote a post here about the emergence of a parallel new Bush admininstration doctrine that allows US forces to raid countries at will whenever supposedly "actionable intelligence" reveals the presence of bad guys.

Today, in the New York Times, there is explosive confirmation of that:

The United States military since 2004 has used broad, secret authority to carry out nearly a dozen previously undisclosed attacks against Al Qaeda and other militants in Syria, Pakistan and elsewhere, according to senior American officials.

Read More »

(73) Comments

November 10, 2008

Obama and Iran

By Robert Dreyfuss

In the realm of foreign affairs, the two wars that America is fighting, in Iraq and Afghanistan, may have higher priority for President Obama than the war it isn't fighting, namely, with Iran. But the battle lines are being drawn already, on all sides of the Iran issue.

During the campaign, Obama stated repeatedly that he is prepared for unconditional, but well "prepared," talks with Tehran. Yesterday, seizing the moment, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wrote a meandering open letter to Obama, which included the following, according to the New York Times translation:

"I congratulate you for attracting the majority of votes in the election. As you know, opportunities that are bestowed upon humans are short lived.

Read More »

(103) Comments

November 7, 2008

Obama's National Security Team Emerging

By Robert Dreyfuss

The game of musical chairs is underway as Barack Obama narrows his choices for who he'll appoint to key Cabinet posts. Most of the speculation, naturally, focuses on key economic posts, but there's a steady trickle of leaks and inflating of trial balloons in the national security arena, too.

The New York Times suggests that Obama might want to appoint a secretary of state who is a Republican, "perhaps including Senators Richard G. Lugar of Indiana or Chuck Hagel of Nebraska." In what would be a far, far better choice, the AP reports that John Kerry wants that job:

Several Democrats said Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who won a new six-year term on Tuesday, was angling for secretary of state. They spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to discuss any private conversations.

Read More »

November 6, 2008

Stop Gates

By Robert Dreyfuss

Barack Obama will be getting off on the wrong foot, to put it mildly, if he does what seems likely now: allow Robert Gates to stay on a secretary of defense.

For reasons that are unclear to me, many in Obama's inner circle seem to believe that it's important to bring so-called "moderate" Republicans into the president-elect's national security team. That is an awful idea, for two reasons: first, even though many of the names being floated -- such as Gates, Dick Lugar of Indiana, and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska -- come from the traditional wing of the GOP, and they are not neoconservatives, they are almost guaranteed to push for an expansion of the US military budget and a bigger armed forces. And second, by doing so Obama would be conceding many critics' argument that Democrats are somehow not suited to control the national security apparatus.

Gates has reportedly already been working on the transition to an Obama administration, and he certainly hasn't done anything to damp down speculation that he is a candidate for the job under Obama.

Read More »

November 5, 2008

Obama and Iraq

By Robert Dreyfuss

There's no doubt that the financial crisis, job insecurity, and fundamental economic worries are the No. 1 issue in Tuesday's vote. But that raises a critical question: If Barack Obama is elected, will he have an antiwar mandate?

The answer isn't clear.

In 2006, when Democrats reconquered the House and Senate, the election was widely seen as a referendum on the failing war in Iraq. Many Democrats, including those who had previously been supporters of the war, felt tremendous pressure from that public expression of antiwar sentiment, even if the Democratic majority in Congress was either unable either to block the so-called surge or to pass legislation halting the war. Their inability to do so was largely the result of President Bush's veto powers and the Senate minority's ability to filibuster defense spending bills and other measures.

Read More »

October 31, 2008

The End of International Law?

By Robert Dreyfuss

A parallel new Bush doctrine is emerging, in the last days of the soon-to-be-ancien regime, and it needs to be strangled in its crib. Like the original Bush doctrine -- the one that Sarah Palin couldn't name, which called for preventive military action against emerging threats -- this one also casts international law aside by insisting that the United States has an inherent right to cross international borders in "hot pursuit" of anyone it doesn't like.

They're already applying it to Pakistan, and this week Syria was the target. Is Iran next?

Let's take Pakistan first. Though a nominal ally, Pakistan has been the subject of at least nineteen aerial attacks by CIA-controlled drone aircraft, killing scores of Pakistanis and some Afghans in tribal areas controlled by pro-Taliban forces. The New York Times listed, and mapped, all nineteen such attacks in a recent piece describing Predator attacks across the Afghan border, all since August. The Times notes that inside the government, the U.S.Special Operations command and other advocates are pushing for a more aggressive use of such units, including efforts to kidnap and interrogate suspected Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders. Though President Bush signed an order in July allowing U.S. commando teams to move into Pakistan itself, with or without Islamabad's permission, such raids have occurred only once, on September 3.

Read More »

October 28, 2008

Political Crisis in Israel May Boost Hawks

By Robert Dreyfuss

The former Mossad agent who leads Israel's ruling party, Kadima, failed in her effort to put together a government, but there's a chance that Tzipi Livni will never become prime minister. That's because Israel's leading uber-hawk, Bibi Netanyahu, is making strong showings in the polls in the run up to what seems likely to be an election early in 2009. A Netanyahu victory would make neoconservatives delirious with joy. For earth's human population, however, the news isn't so good.

Early polls show Livni with a small edge over Netanyahu in an Israeli election, in which voters choose parties, not personalities. One poll suggests Kadima would win 29 seats, Netanyahu's Likud 26, and Labor (which used to dominate Israel overwhelmingly) just 11. That would be a big gain for Likud, which has only 12 seats today.

Other polls give Likud as many as 30 seats, and Haaretz, the Israeli daily, suggests that Netanyahu is starting to smell victory:

Read More »

October 27, 2008